Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts

Entry and Exit Echoes∗

While aggregate data do not show the investment echoes predicted by vintage-capital models, echoes arise in rates of entry and exit of firms at the industry level. Moreover, industries where prices decline rapidly experience early ‘shakeouts’. The relation emerges naturally in a vintage-capital model in which exit of firms sometimes accompanies the replacement of their capital, and in which a s...

– 064 Entry , Exit and Productivity

Using panel data from Spain Farinas and Ruano (IJIO 2005) test three hypotheses from a model by Hopenhayn (Econometrica 1992): (H1) Firms that exit in year t were in t-1 less productive than firms that continue to produce in t. (H2) Firms that enter in year t are less productive than incumbent firms in year t. (H3) Surviving firms from an entry cohort were more productive than non-surviving fir...

Forecast Evaluation and Combination

Entry thresholds and actual entry and exit in local markets

Bresnahan and Reiss (1991) derive entry thresholds (equilibrium numbers of firms) for local markets but do not investigate actual entry and exit flows. This paper investigates for thirteen Belgian retail and service industries whether markets with actual numbers of firms higher (lower) than the thresholds display exit (entry) in subsequent periods.

Density Forecast Combination

In this paper we investigate whether and how far density forecasts sensibly can be combined to produce a “better” pooled density forecast. In so doing we bring together two important but hitherto largely unrelated areas of the forecasting literature in economics, density forecasting and forecast combination. We provide simple Bayesian methods of pooling information across alternative density fo...